Israel and the United Arab Emirates just made a deal to establish formal diplomatic ties for the first time. Does this finally mean peace in the Middle East, or is it more of a prelude to conflict?
This week on The Elucidators: Decoding Global News, we’re going to discuss a big, symbolic diplomatic move that occurred in the Middle East last week: the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, two countries that have been in a formal state of hostilities for decades.
In one of the few successes the Trump Administration can claim for its foreign policy, it looks like the Arabs and Israelis may be putting aside their longstanding enmity to confront the nascent Iranian threat.
We’re also going to delve into the situation in Belarus, which might just be on the brink of a democratic “color revolution” after a fixed election, and we’ll also talk about how an Arctic heat wave is causing scientists to bump up their timelines for climate change — and not in a good way.
Episode Photo by Sander Crombach on Unsplash
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Episode 53
Steve Palley: This week on the elucidates, his decoding global news we're going to discuss a big symbolic diplomatic move that occurred in the middle East last week. The normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates to countries that have been in a formal state of hostilities for decades.
[00:00:17]In one of the few successes the Trump administration can claim for its foreign policy. It looks like the Arabs and Israelis, maybe putting aside their longstanding enmity to confront the nascent Iranian threat. We're also going to delve into the situation in Belarus. Which might just be on the brink of a democraticrevolution after a fixed election.
[00:00:36] And we'll also talk about how an Arctic heat wave is. causing scientists to bump up their timelines for climate change. And not in a good way. Thank you for listening everyone. If you want to support the show, the best ways to do so are to recommend us on social media or to write us a review on your podcast app. All right let's drop some international relations knowledge with a quickness
[00:00:56] Steve Palley: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Elucidat hers as always. I'm your host, Steve Palley. And guess what? There's nobody with me this week. I'm flying solo because my normal co-host and producer Pete Newsome is stranded in Northern California.
[00:01:35] we're gonna miss you, but I am going to do my best, Solo hosting for the first time. So everybody please bear with me. We're going to see how this goes with, no Pete and no Assumee or anybody else, that we've gotten on the show to co-host or anything like that. The good news is that I just came off a short, sweet vacation, 48 hours.
[00:01:56] In Santa Barbara wine country, where I learned quite a bit about viticulture, and its interaction with geology. Very interesting stuff.
[00:02:04]I also learned how wine subscriptions are wine clubs work at boutique wineries because we came home with three of them along with what feels like several dozen bottles of the finest, reds and whites from the Santa Ynez Valley. Super effective sales tactics, especially after what they call tasting. so that was interesting too.
[00:02:25]So with all of that in mind, we're going to get to our first story. Which is last Thursday on August 13th.
[00:02:35] President Donald Trump announced that the United Arab Emirates had agreed to full normalization of relations with Israel. In exchange for Israel, not proceeding with the annexation of the the, Israeli settler territories in the West bank. Now, this is a big deal.
[00:02:55] Because the United Arab Emirates now joins only two other Arab countries. To have normal diplomatic relations with Israel and Israel's entire over 70 year history, that being Egypt, which normalized relations in 1979.
[00:03:11] And Jordan, which did so in 1994. quote. Trump. Now that the ice has been broken, I expect more Arab and Muslim countries will follow. The UAE is lead. and apparently this has been a part of Jared Kushner's initiative. as a larger part of his strategy for the middle East or the Trump administration strategy for the middle East.
[00:03:34]Kushner has been Trump's point man, on middle East policy. And apparently was the main intermediary for this deal, which he's calling the Abraham accord Abraham being of course, the common father or ancestor to the three.
[00:03:50] Great monotheistic faiths coming out of the, The middle East, those being Christianity, Judaism, and Islam. the idea being, Hey, we can all get along. We all have the same. original father in the form of Abraham, right? we're not there yet, but maybe this is a good first step.
[00:04:07]what does this mean? it means that the two countries can now cooperate more formally. across a wide range of areas, starting with simple stuff, like opening embassies in each other's capitals and allowing direct flights between countries and moving from there into more complex arrangements.
[00:04:28]investing in one another's economies, sharing technology, and most importantly, cooperation across the security realm. And we'll explain why that's probably the most important aspect of this and a little bit. First, I want to get into a quick history of Arab Israeli relations. and we've run over this before on the show, but I think it's important to go back over it.
[00:04:50]to place this in context. So everybody understands why this is potentially such a big deal. now,if you write emails professionally, there's an expression called TL. Semi-colon dr. Which stands for too long. Didn't read. so for this next section, if you prefer to just skip ahead too long, didn't read, the quick summary is man Arab Israeli relations have been rough, extremely rough.
[00:05:14]there've been four major Arab Israeli worse. The first starting immediately after the establishment of Israel in 1948. The last came in 1973. Israel has won all of them. So there's been basically one big Arab Israeli war for the first four decades. Of Israel's existence 48, then the 50s, then the, 67 and finally in 73.
[00:05:38] The most important war was in 1967. When Israel crushed the combined Arab armies of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and six days. Not a very long time and occupied a lot of Arab territory, including the Palestinian areas. Of the West bank and the Gaza strip. Now Israel was of course, formed out of the Palestinian mandate. a colonial area that had been administered by the United Kingdom, upon Israel's founding in 1948. They took over a lot of the Palestinian Territories because they were co occupying, the Palestinian land. and, they gave them a boot, during that first founding war of Israel in 48, the Palestinians ended up in two on clips,the West bank of the Jordan river.
[00:06:26] Steve Palley: Near Jerusalem and the Gaza strip on the Mediterranean. and then. two words later, Israel, took those two enclaves over as well. because they were sick of having a surprise warfare declared upon them. And decided that they needed more strategic depth. they also took over the Sinai peninsula and the Golan Heights.
[00:06:48]from Egypt and Syria, respectively. but the West bank and the Gaza strip we're full of. many Palestinians, that the Israelis now basically had responsibility over. and fast forward from there 30 years. we have the 1993 to 1995 Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinian authority.
[00:07:12] Basically Yasser Arafat. It's a Palestinian liberation organization. The PLO. Which tied broader Arab recognition of Israel to Israel's return to 1967 borders. so again, That would mean exiting those Palestinian Territories of the West bank and the Gaza strip and allowing some form of Palestinian statehood.
[00:07:34]that's what the Oslo Accords, we're working towards. It was this sort of land for peace type of situation. We're the Israelis would withdraw as they became more confident that the PLO and the Palestinians more generally we're not interested in attacking Israel or allowing Arab armies to attack through those territories.
[00:07:55] Thereby establishing Israeli security over the long haul. this policy is called the two state solution. Those two States being of course, Israel and Palestine being independent, separate, and. Living in peace and harmony alongside one another. And this idea has been the basis of us policy on Israel, Palestine.
[00:08:15] Steve Palley: Up until the Trump administration basically. Here's the problem. After 1967, Israeli settlers founded new towns throughout formerly Arab lands, including in areas of the West bank that are supposed to belong to the Palestinians and Israeli settlers are basically exactly what they sound like. They're generally,
[00:08:35] Far right politically. and they go into these lands they believe are part of Israel, biblical mandate. And set up shop. they're usually heavily armed pretty interested in Judaism and having large families and reclaiming the Holy land for Israel. These West bank settlements in particular have grown very rapidly in the past few decades. And now number about 500,000 people in population. Which is a pretty substantial fraction of all the people in Israel, especially all the Jews in Israel, because there are more than just juice. There's also Israeli Arabs. Israel's total population is somewhere between nine and 10 million and we're talking about 500,000 settlers.
[00:09:19]who are now outside of Israel's formal borders in these territories that are supposed to belong to Palestine.
[00:09:25]Now. Israel evacuated settlements from the Sinai peninsula and the Gaza strip in the past, but those settlements were much smaller in terms of the number of settlers who actually live there. It was politically a lot more tenable to move them back inside. If Israel's borders.
[00:09:43]meanwhile Israel's right wing demands, formal annexation of these settlements to Israel while Palestinians and Arabs decry them as illegal and also a lot of Europeans and, other international observers as well. the United States. To this point has never allowed Israel to annex the settlements because this would be a massive provocation. It would be basically saying, we are allowing you to take over these areas, which were gained in a war.
[00:10:12]the 67 war, which admittedly was a defensive war, but it was still gained through violence and that is not supposed to happen. In the post world war II world, that is not ha not how we're supposed to solve our differences, Should be done through diplomacy. And if Israel is going to take over those territories and needs to be part of a diplomatic deal, it cannot be done unilaterally.
[00:10:35]Steve Palley: That has been the policy to this point, but the Trump administration's plan, which we talked about on this show, wasn't failed earlier this year and it formally authorized unilateral Israeli annexation. For the first time. Basically saying that it's time to acknowledge the reality of the situation as exists on the ground.
[00:10:54] The trump administration's logic went something like this
[00:10:57] Steve Palley: Fact is nobody can reverse Israeli settlement of the West bank, including Israel. There's half a million settlers now, and these guys don't want to be moved back inside Israel. They want Israel to come meet them and absorb them. back to the Trump deal.
[00:11:13] In exchange for agreeing to annexation, the Palestinians would get a much smaller. Many would say non-viable state along with the U S investment and financial help. This was a non starter with the Palestinians, obviously because the Palestinians had been led to believe for decades, that they would be able to get more or less the entirety.
[00:11:33]of the West bank, as the foundation of their new state. And in addition, the deal comes after Trump did a lot of other anti Palestinian things. For instance, moving the us embassy to Jerusalem, which is a sort of a divided city. between Palestinian and Israeli control in reality, Israel controls almost the entirety of Jerusalem.
[00:11:56]and the Trump administration has also largely defunded the Palestinian authority. so the Palestinian leadership. Has said that the United States is no longer an honest broker. In this peace process between Palestine and Israel. And I cannot possibly blame them for saying that. moving into.
[00:12:18] Questions about this deal between the UAE and Israel. The biggest question is. Why do it now?
[00:12:27] and the answer is simply. There's a threat emanating from Iran again, which we've talked about on the show, in the form of. Adventurism and, increasing aggression. across the middle East. Such that all major Arab countries are now much more worried about Iran than they are about Israel.
[00:12:47] And we've got things like the Saudi refinery strike. Last year, we have Ron being active in the Yemeni civil war threatening. the Arabian peninsula is Southern flank. we have, Iran and Hezbollah active in the Syrian civil war and, Iran now dominating Iraq. now that the United States has decreased it's true presence.
[00:13:10]Syria and Iraq have always been considered. Part of the Arab Heartland and Iran is dominating both of them. And on top of this, we now have the situation in Lebanon. whereby Hezbollah is presiding over a destabilized country.
[00:13:27] In the wake of the Beirut explosions a few weeks ago.
[00:13:31]here's the thing., it's an open secret that the UAE and Israel have been collaborating for years. Particularly in the realm of security, the massage had been helping the United Arab Emirates, which is a close neighbor to Iran with intelligence gathering and things like this.
[00:13:50]because Israel considered them an ally before formalization, but bring it out in the open. Improves deterrence because it's. formalizes the arrangement for everybody to see and basically says, Hey, we're going to start working together.
[00:14:04]And we're not afraid to show it anymore. we're making this official. And that means that there would be a reputational cost to either side. forsaking the other, in the, event of Iranian aggression. That's generally how alliances work from an international relations perspective.
[00:14:26]in terms of theory, now here's the thing. The UAE and Iran are not necessarily. bitter enemies like Israel on Iran. In fact, their trade partners and the UAE sits right across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. They're right in the line of fire. If Iran were to do anything.
[00:14:46] Abu Dhabi is not very far away from Iran at all. so the Emirates is not interested in rupturing the relationship with Iran entirely, but they are interested in maintaining their independence. They feel very strongly about that and they don't want to be dominated.
[00:15:01] By Iranian military power and having a deal with Israel in UAS back pocket is a big deal. Cause Israel is probably the strongest military power remaining in the middle East. Now that the United States is taking its ball and going home.
[00:15:18]another reason. For this to happen now is that frankly, the Palestinians are not as relevant as they used to be.
[00:15:26]when this deal was announced, Iran and Palestine. Jointly accused the UAE of abandoned any of the Palestinians, which is basically accurate. so I asked a friend of the show, professor gala Jackson. about this. And he said that Arab leaders, frankly, perceived the Palestinians is a lost cause at this point.
[00:15:46]The. Israel United States. Tandem is simply too powerful to reverse the situation on the ground. Which is that Israel has dominated the Palestinians and basically bottled them up in such a way that they've won the multi-decade insurgency. they have the Palestinians completely under control.
[00:16:08] And on top of this, the Arabs feel like they need American and Israeli protection at this point. Anyway.
[00:16:16]There's no real reason to think that Israel will ever meet Palestinian demands . And a bad deal is better than no deal. That's basically what the UAE is thinking. it's time to acknowledge reality. And I think that Jared Kushner put this in, he actually said that, in no uncertain terms, this deal acknowledges the reality on the ground. which is that Israel has effectively won this war. and it is time to formalize that and move on.
[00:16:44]To be clear, not everybody agrees with this, especially not the Palestinians and their eyes, but the guys with the guns. See it as a fait accompli
[00:16:54] On top of this. for the sort of Arab monarchy is the conservative monarchies the Arab spring revolutions of about a decade ago, demonstrated that most younger Arups the quote unquote Arab street care more about good governance. And democracy than they do about the Palestinians to be clear, they still don't have good governance or democracy in places like the UAE or Saudi Arabia.
[00:17:20]but they're much more focused on their own destinies then this sort of pan Arab dream. Of the 20th century, which included. Palestine being liberated, by Arab armies, they tried to do that four times. It didn't work and the next generation is like,it sucks that the Palestinians are still living under occupation, but frankly we want our own countries to reform and modernize, and we can't help them.
[00:17:48]That's actually the focus for the Arab street. All of that said annexation of the territory's might be a bridge too far. So the UAE can claim some credit they can say. Hey. Yes. we are offering recognition to Israel on the condition that they halt annexation.
[00:18:09]which they should get some Arab street cred for, not withstanding what the Palestinians are. Iranians have said about it.
[00:18:16]Because nobody wants the Israelis to annex these territories. Including, perhaps the Israelis themselves. That's right. Israel may not actually want to annex the settlements. And this deal is a pretty nice pretext. Not too. So here's the deal with that? Israel's long time prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been involved in Israeli politics for decades. He's been around since the 90s and he still somehow in charge of Israel.
[00:18:44]Despite having been indicted for corruption, forced into unity government with this rival Benny Gantz and screwing up Israel's COVID response by reopening schools too quickly. Israel had control of the virus and then reopened schools and the virus blew up again. he has been subject to protests, for his handling of the virus, the economy, and also for dodging his corruption trial, which always seems to recede into the distance.
[00:19:16]it's almost incredible that he's still hanging on to power, but he managed to maneuver Gantz. Into a power sharing agreement and remain prime minister, even though he technically lost the last election in Israel. Which is crazy. he ran for reelection promising annexation of these territories.
[00:19:33]Which he could have started on July 1st. But as government bolt, when the day came, claiming that more planning was needed. The process has been weirdly difficult from the Israeli side, because the country is actually really badly divided on this issue. The entirety of the Israeli left.
[00:19:50] Which Netanyahu generally ignores does not want annexation. It wants a two state solution, with a viable Palestinian state. And it wants Israel to normalize relations with that Palestinian state. alongside the dream of the 90s, the Oslo Accords, that's what the left wants, but even on.
[00:20:10] Netanyahu his right flank. He has problems, right? Wing extremists are aghast that Israel would give the Palestinians any kind of state under any circumstances because they have said. We have basically a biblical claim from thousands of years ago toall of this territory within the historical kingdom of Israel, the ancient kingdom of Israel, which of course includes, the West bank and Gaza strip.
[00:20:36] We don't need to give them anything. And besides we can't trust them because they've been involved in terrorism against Israelis for many years. meanwhile, Benny Gantz, who is the guy who's in that coalition government with net and Yahoo. Won't agree to any plan until the COVID crisis is under control.
[00:20:55] And the white house has demanded that Netanyahu get dances. Go ahead before proceeding, because it would look really bad. If for instance, that in Yahoo and Gantz were divided, Netanyahu proceeded and then Gans one power at some point in the future. And reversed course on the deal. the white house really doesn't want that to happen.
[00:21:15] So they need at least, the picture of a United front from this government, to be able to proceed. In addition, annexation would cause Israel major diplomatic headaches. Boris Johnson, the prime minister of the UK. Recently wrote a full page, editorial in a major Israeli newspaper, warning them not to proceed like in no uncertain terms do not do this. It's a big mistake for the future of your country. Don't do it.
[00:21:42] And that's the prime minister of the UK, which remains a, an important, Western ally of Israel.
[00:21:50]Furthermore on top of that. Joe Biden, should he win election? This year in November has said that he will disallow annexation. So the window is closing here. if in fact Netanyahu does not actually want to annex the territories, which seems a woman more likely because of all the problems that would cause it seems like he just said he did in order to get the right wingers on board for the election.
[00:22:15]he only may have to hold out until November so we can expect the studies to proceed for several more months while the, election situation in the United States. Becomes more clear. A final way to interpret this move is as a favor for Trump close to the 2020 election. Fact is that Trump doesn't have that many tangible achievements to this point.
[00:22:38] So Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Zayed, who is a, the shake of the UAE. our political allies, of Trump's and Kushners and they wanted to give him one to advertise before the election. that's just a theory. but Trump has done a lot for Israel in particular. So makes sense that one hand would walk, would wash the other. even if Netanyahu may actually have his fingers crossed behind his back, hoping that Biden ends up winning.
[00:23:08] So that he doesn't have to go through with this annexation. We'll have an excuse not to, but we'll see. So what comes next? Kushner and Trump had hinted that we should watch for additional Arab countries announcing similar deals with Israel and not in Yahoo and, his friends in the Israeli defense forces. the defense establishment have also started talking, that.
[00:23:31]we could see a lot more Arab countries fall into line very quickly. Saudi Arabia would be the biggest one to fall because it's the major Arab power economically. and has formed the main center of gravity diplomatically for the region for a long time. but the United Arab Emirates is far from insignificant. It punches well above its weight.
[00:23:53]both economically and in military terms, in fact, it's been called little Sparta, for its activities, in places like Yemen. And elsewhere, And, I think Israel regards it as a really nice sort of second tier. Place to start off this initiative. and most importantly, now that the United States is exiting the middle East, it has removed almost all its troops from Syria.
[00:24:19] It's in the process of drawing down in Iraq and also in Afghanistan. The middle East is starting to solidify into two camps. The first is this Arab Israeli access. Which has only been possible. Because, the Palestinian issue has faded into the background as the Iranian threat has loomed larger on the other side.
[00:24:44] We have Iran actually forming an access with Turkey. Which you might not expect, but those two countries. are governed by. Islamic conservatives air Dijuan. who is, turkeys authoritarians president. is from a Islamist party. And, He, sees eye to eye with the S the Islamic Republic of Iran, at least on some measures.
[00:25:10]and, Turkey has also gotten into it with Israel, over a bunch of different topics recently, including energy exploration. In the Eastern Mediterranean, in areas that are close to both Israel and Turkey and are claimed by both countries. so it should be very interesting to see this new little miniature cold war, come into play.
[00:25:35]between the Arabs and the Israelis, which nobody would have ever expected even a decade ago. And the Iranians and the Turks.
[00:25:43]Finally, and this is important. The Israel, Palestine peace process remains stuck at square zero. The Palestinians haven't participated in any of this haven't agreed to anything and are unlikely to talk to either of the Trump administration or Netanyahu's government ever again. If it's going to be the case that all the Arab countries lineup behind the UAE to join up with Israel at this point, I think we can reasonably expect the Palestinians to end up in the Iranian Turkish camp.
[00:26:10] Steve Palley: And if the Iranians and the Turks both decide to help the Palestinians in a real way, like militarily that could spell big trouble for the Israelis, it would probably be in Israel's interest to try to meet the Palestinian somewhere in the middle and get them a reasonable state. but that would take more foresight.
[00:26:25] Then a Victorand civil war usually has.
[00:26:27]
[00:26:27]Okay, moving on to our second topic. are we about to see a revolution in Belarus? this guy, Alexander Lucas Shenko, who has been called the Europe's last dictator has been in control of Belarus for last 26 years, since 1994. And in a presidential election held on Sunday, August 9th. He claimed to have won 80% of the vote while the main opposition candidate
[00:26:54]So bet .
[00:26:56]was certified at 10%. On surprisingly, this boat was neither free, nor fair and sick on a sky was estimated to have one 60 to 70% of the vote. If, it had been counted. Correctly, which it was not. she only entered the race after her husband. Who's a popular opposition figure who is running for president was jailed by the regime.
[00:27:19] Ballots were stuffed such that 40% of the votes came in before polling stations actually opened, which last time I checked. Isn't supposed to be possible. I think that, Belarus has been an autocracy for so long that these guys have forgotten how to fix an election, even remotely convincingly.
[00:27:39] anyway. After this vote held a week ago, this past Sunday. Massive protests ignited against the Lucas shake, who government. With hundreds of thousands of Belorussians in the streets, demanding Lucas Shanko. Go. Security forces have been arresting and torturing the demonstrators. And we've seen lots of cell phone footage of some pretty nasty stuff.
[00:28:02] Steve Palley: In terms of being beaten to the ground. Stepped on. herded into detention centers and marched around. And, even worse stories than that. there have been close to 7,000 arrests. Meanwhile Sveta which is what she goes. Bye bye. For short, which is good for me because I can barely pronounce her name has led to neighboring Lithuania, where she is in process of setting up what kind of looks like it. Government in exile, she's calling it a transitional council.
[00:28:31]a couple of quick facts on Belarus, because I don't think anybody knows anything about Belarus, including me. I had to look a lot of this stuff up. It is a landlocked Eastern European country between Russia, Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine. Which is a tough neighborhood. Historically, a lot of those countries, go in and out of existence over the decades, centuries, including during the 20th century.
[00:28:53]it's about the size of Kansas geographically. and it has 10 million people, which is three times more people than Kansas. And it's very urbanized about 70% urban. So it was when it was part of the Soviet union. it formed part of it's heavy industrial base, a lot of factories. However, its GDP is about 40%. The size of Kansas
[00:29:13]which means that the people living in barrel Belarus are about 80% poorer than the average Kansan, something like that.
[00:29:22]Belarus achieved independence. after the dissolution of the Soviet union in 1991, but Luca Shenko has continued many Soviet policies since he took over in 1994. they're still basically a command economy in place, largely and Belarus, meaning that the state owns all these giant factories.
[00:29:43]where they produce things like tractors and, industrial fertilizer stuff like that. and there's a huge secret police. That's still called the KGB, which is a throwback,not even the Russians still have the KGB only the Belorussians. so we have this ruthless dictator. Who's a wielding the KGB on one side against hundreds of thousands of protestors on the other side.
[00:30:07] How's this gonna play out? as of today, Wednesday. the 19th of August. Protests are continuing. and in fact, by last Friday, the 14th, there was some evidence that security services we're joining the protestors, although it's not clear how prevalent this is. A lot of soldiers andKGB members.
[00:30:28] Have been taking videos of themselves, throwing their uniforms in the garbage and burning them while apologizing to the citizenry for, their appalling behavior during this uprising. meanwhile Putin who is a Lucas, shank goes, neighbor of course, has offered to support Lucas Shenko quote unquote against external threats.
[00:30:49]and of course, Lucas, GENCO is claiming that the opposition protests are connected to foreign governments as these guys always do. In a somewhat worrying trend. Russian state TV has started to compare Belarus 2020 to Ukraine. 2014. drawing a parallel to the Ukrainian color revolution.
[00:31:10] That kicked out a pro-Russian dictator at that time. And installed the democracy. And we all know what happened after that Putin intervened, took away the Crimea and invaded Eastern Ukraine, which is still in the hands of Russian irregular troops. that is a pretty serious threat to a belt versus sovereignty.
[00:31:32] On the other hand, Luca Shango and Putin are not necessarily friends. In fact, they've had a pretty crappy relationship, ever since Putin invaded Crimea. Lukashenko has moving away from Russia and towards the EU, looking for protection. So he is a bit of a fair weather friend to Putin and Putin knows this as well.
[00:31:52]Meanwhile,
[00:31:53] I think that Luca Shanko his future hinges on whether workers at those state owned enterprises that I referenced earlier. Call a general strike or not. if they call a general strike, that's probably it for the dictator. And in fact, there are some strikers at these factories, but they have not reached critical mass yet.
[00:32:15]only a handful of workers have gone out on strike and protested, because their bosses have threatened to fire them and they can't afford to be fired. so Belarus is teetering on the brink here. meanwhile Putin, Emmanuel Macron, and Angela Merkel
[00:32:33]have talked about Belarus, in the last couple of days, Putin hasn't done anything to help Lucas Shanklin directly, but he has demanded that the EU stay out of it. which of course the EU has not done today. The EU announced that it rejects the results of the vote and we'll sanction individuals responsible for repression and electoral fraud. so that is the EU throwing its hat into the bell Russian ring.
[00:32:57] And this dish just got a lot spicier, with the EU on one side. Basically on the side of the majority, Bellaruse as populous it, it appears and Latimer Putin on the other side. who has apparently started maneuvering troops into place on belarus's Eastern border. So watch this space.
[00:33:18]for developments, in the near future Putin obviously does not want new democracies. On his border, to be joining NATO and the European union, that is a bridge too far for him. So we're going to see what exactly he intends to do. If he is going to help prop up Lucas Shanko or step in after Lucas Shanko falls, it remains to be seen.
[00:33:40]
[00:33:40]Okay, let's move now to our third topic. the heat wave in the Arctic. that's right. The Arctic circle is currently about five degrees Celsius, which is roughly 10 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than it's supposed to be this time of year. On June 20th, we measured the highest temperature ever. Over a hundred degrees on the Arctic circle. Which is completely insane. It's normal for temperatures to climb into the 70s in, the Arctic during summertime, but a hundred degrees, not so much. This is because the Arctic is actually warming three times faster than the rest of the world.
[00:34:21]So wall, the world at large has warmed about one degree centigrade. Since pre-industrial times. The Arctic is basically in the mid twos and headed towards three. and that's causing big issues. To the tune of massive forest and peat fires in Siberia, Siberia being the gigantic rural Russian area.
[00:34:42]in the East of Russia, that is very sparsely populated except by deer and bears,Siberia is mostly on fire, particularly the part in the Arctic circle. both forest fires, which we're familiar with here in California, especially right now. And peat fires, which burn under ground and are a lot more difficult to detect.
[00:35:02]scientists have found that these fires in the Artec have released more CEO to, into the atmosphere in June or July alone. Than in any complete fire season. Prior to 2020. So all of 2019 all of last year has been met and exceeded in terms of the amount of CO2 being burned into the atmosphere.
[00:35:23] In Siberia and the Arctic, in two months. in addition, Canada's last remaining ice shelf, the mill, an ice shelf. split apart and fell into the ocean this summer. It was about the size of Washington DC. And now it is two different icebergs that are floating away. Greenland's ice sheet, which is basically next door to the Milam. I shelf has melted to the point of no return, according to a new analysis by research from Ohio state university. This is the single biggest contributor to global sea level rise is Greenland melting.
[00:35:56]And when you take all these things together. Scientists characterize these issues as quote unquote, arriving 30 years earlier than anticipated. This was the kind of stuff we were supposed to be seeing in 2050. But we're now seeing it in 2020. And scientists now think that the Arctic could be ice free.
[00:36:15] In the summer. By 2035. which was definitely not supposed to happen until the back half of the century. just for context, last time, the Arctic was ice-free and the summer was 130,000 years ago. When temperatures were about four degrees Celsius, warmer than they are today. So this makes sense.
[00:36:34]And, it's, this is not to say that this is all bad because the Arctic is now open to ocean navigation. Which makes shipping more efficient. The Russians in particular are actually happy about this because they can get their, natural resources, like natural gas. And certain types of metals to market much easier.
[00:36:54]from Siberia and the North part of the country, ships can now go right through the Arctic circle, into the Pacific pretty easily. and that saves our transport costs. Yeah. Russia. on the other hand, it poses some pretty serious issues, for the rest of the world. in particular, the Pacific coast.
[00:37:12]Where, the host of this show live in California because it appears that the jet stream is starting to break down. The jet stream is basically a gigantic. A column of air that flows from West to East, across North America. from the Pacific to the Atlantic and it is ordinarily driven by the difference in temperature between the Arctic and Pacific oceans and more specifically the Arctic and the equator.
[00:37:38] And if the Arctic is way hotter than it's supposed to be, then that temperature difference is a lot lower. And the jet stream is a lot slower. And this has severe consequences for places like California. Because the jet stream we're ordinarily push hot weather out of the way faster. And instead we are sitting here under something called a heat dome.
[00:37:58]with a hundred degree temperatures, with no end in sight and fires, burning everywhere, such that it is difficult to go outside right now. so all of this is say, this is really not good news and we're going to have to figure out a way to mitigate the effects of this sooner rather than later, because this is going to be an irreversible change.
[00:38:18]Okay, so there you have it, that is the show for this week. once again, I'm Steve , You can write in with any questions or comments at The Elucidat is all one word@gmail.com or hit us up on Facebook. Cause we like to hear from our readers. Thanks everyone. And talk to you next week, hopefully, with cohost Pete back and in one piece.
[00:38:39] Take care, everybody. Stay cool.